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CMHC Warns Canadians: “Support For Homeownership Cannot Be Unlimited”

Canada’s national housing agency wants to remind people there’s a limit to what they can do. Evan Siddall, CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) updated Canada’s standing committee on finance. In the update, he explained how the CMHC is using tens of billions in capital to support real estate markets. Even so, […]

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Bank of Canada Data Shows Why Household Debt Is The Biggest Vulnerability

Just how much did Canada lean on household debt to grow the economy over the past few decades? A lot. Bank of Canada (BoC) crunched the numbers, and they show household debt accelerated faster than any other segment of debt. The distribution of debt makes Canadian households one of the most vulnerable of the advanced […]

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Canadian Real Estate Sales See Worst April Since 1984, Montreal and Toronto Lead Lower

Canadian real estate sales have dropped to the lowest level in a generation. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows sales fell in April. Slower growth was expected going into this month, however not this slow. The volume for the month was the lowest since 1984 – when the population was a third smaller. Canadian […]

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This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Defaults Expected To Triple, Price Forecasts Are All Over The Place

Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories. Canadian Real Estate Bank Of Canada: Mortgages In Arrears Expected To Triple, But It Could Be Worse The Bank of Canada expects mortgages in arrears will rise, but policy measures helped contain the surge. The BoC expected mortgages in arrears to rise 8x by […]

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Prediction: Vancouver RE Prices Will Not Crash… Unless They Crash

“If homeowners can just hold off selling, the Canadian housing market will emerge fine from its current “deep freeze”.
According to a recent TD Economics housing forecast update, the market is expected to gradually recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After an anticipated “historic” plunge in sales in the month of April 2020, a “much stronger activity” is seen next year.
A lot of that depends on whether homeowners can avoid distressed selling during this pandemic.
“Absolutely key to our forecasts is the assumption that listings mirror sales by dropping substantially in the near-term and recovering gradually thereafter,” Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, wrote.
By holding off on selling, homeowners can do one thing for the market.
“This puts a floor on prices and sustains relatively tight-supply demand balances across most markets, allowing for the resumption of positive price growth as provincial economies are re-opened,” Sondhi explained.”
– excerpt from ‘Homeowners avoiding distressed selling key to Canadian housing market recovery: TD Economics’, Carlito Pablo, 1 May 2020, Georgia Straight

No, folks, that ‘analysis’ is not from ‘The Onion’.
Seems like the TD analysts have found a sure fire way of maintaining every bull market, forever… (it’s easy: just get sellers not to sell).
It’s remarkable that this kind of ‘analysis’ can get parroted on & on without getting called out.
Remember: Sellers aren’t competing with Buyers, they’re competing with other Sellers. How many Vancouver RE speculators (essentially each and every buyer for the last 10-15 years) are going to realize their thus-far-paper profits? We are already seeing many anecdotal examples of people who bought in 2016 or later taking losses on resales.
– vreaa

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Bank of Canada: Mortgages In Arrears Expected To Triple, But It Could Be Worse

Canada’s mortgage apocalypse isn’t going to be fun, but it could have been a lot worse. The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its model on mortgages in arrears this week. Through a combination of monetary policy and bank generosity, mortgages in arrears are still  expected to rise to record highs. However, without the policies implemented, […]

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Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise 12%… or Drop Over 30%

How does an irrational market respond to deteriorating fundamentals? We sifted through dozens of pages of Canadian real estate price forecasts to find out. All forecasts recognized this is the largest employment shock the country has ever seen. However, the impact on real estate prices ranged from “it’s bullish”, to “how do prices rise when […]

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Toronto Detached Homes See Median Sale Price Fall Below A Million

The Greater Toronto real estate roller coaster continues, with a pandemic thrown into the mix. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows detached home sales and inventory made a sharp decline in April. Most people could have guessed that, but the impact on prices is a little less clear. The industry’s benchmark price shows […]

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Canada’s Debt Relief Pauses Insolvencies, But Still Biggest Year Since 2010

Canadians are still getting crushed by debts, but that isn’t a priority right now. Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada (OSB) data shows a slower month in March. Despite the drop, this has more to do with the pandemic relief de-prioritizing the urgency of filings. Even with the drop, this is still the busiest […]

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Canadian Household Debt Hits $2.28 Trillion, As Mortgage Growth Further Accelerates

Canadian household debt was seeing growth speed up, even in the beginning of the pandemic. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows the balance of household credit reached a record high in March. Household debt is now growing at the fastest pace in years, which likely isn’t the bullish sign it usually is. Canadian Household Debt […]

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